RECAP: G3 Projections - Tuesday June 17 - Plus FREE PICK!
G3 Projections & Models
I do not come this morning with good news other than to say we’ll get through it.
And what is “it”?
Regression
We’ve had a stellar MLB season so far up until the last 8 - 10 days where we’ve just fallen apart. The models are doing well and they are still in positive territory going 474-401 on the money line for a 54.17% win rate. But over the last 10 days we’ve dropped to a 69-60 record.
Like I’ve said before, I believe in transparency and having done this a long time, we’ll get through it - but for today - it’s “hold on tight” as the road may get bumpy.
And once again I have to confess that I broke a Cardinal rule and over-bet on a tennis match and got burned - this won’t happen again - but we’re human and we do dumb things chasing and it’s important to learn from these mistakes (in all fairness this mistake was made before I even posted yesterday’s similar chasing of a bet - full disclosure there).
Anyway, WNBA has been on fire as we’re now 6-0 over our last 6 bets and tennis has been very solid going 13-8 since the 12th of June. If not for my foolish betting, we’d be up nicely there.
MLB - that’s another thing altogether. We’re in that sort of “calm before the storm” area - I dubbed it the doldrums during NBA season - every NBA season goes through three phases - the first being the beginning where betting is great, the play is great and the games are great. Then comes that weird time from around Christmas till a week or two after the All-Star break where the betting sucks, players are phoning it in and the games are unwatchable.
The MLB is sort of there right now - much less so than the NBA by far - but we deal with a lot more injuries and team motivations are a little harder to quantify.
That will change as the season wears on and we’ll be back in the black very soon - so hang in there.
I should have MLB bets up soon and for new readers, here’s a free TENNIS pick for today!
Alex Michelsen ML -110 vs Stefanos Tsitsipas - ATP Halle (grass)
No. 33 ranked Michelsen will take on the 25th ranked Tsitsipas today in German in 2nd round play. Michelsen has a 2-0 edge in head-to-head play and has gone 18-14 on the season while Tsitsipas has a 19-11 record on the year. The money has been heavy to Michelsen and the line has moved his way nicely opening at -105 and is now up to -145 at some books.
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