It took Washington seven field goals to get past the New York Giants last week. Tonight we’ll see if they can get a touchdown against the Bengals.
Date: Monday 09/23
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Playing Surface: FieldTurf
Game Time Weather:
Commanders Preview
Washington will make a trip to Cincinnati to face the Bengals on one of two Monday Night football games on the slate for this evening.
The Commanders are currently 1 - 1 on the season and are sitting 2nd in the NFC East, a half game behind the Eagles. Washington pulled out a win last week against the Giants on the back of Austin Seibert’s leg as he went a perfect 7 for 7 in his debut as the Commanders kicker and accounted for all of the Commanders points. It will take a complete effort this week to put actual points on the board against this Bengals defense.
After only 2 games, Washington comes into Week 3 sitting 27th in the ESPN Power Index. They are 29th in total yards (724) good for 6th in yards per game (362), 29th in total passing yards (371) and 13th in rushing yards (353) and 28th in total points.
Defensively the Commanders are 4th in total yards allowed (696) good for 24th in yards per game (348), first in passing yards allowed (257), 6th in rushing yards allowed and 12th in points allowed (55).
Quarterback Jayden Daniels will come into this game with a 97.2 QBR with 410 yards on 40 of 53 passing with seven sacks. Daniels has also run for 132 yards on 26 carries with two rushing touchdowns, but has thrown no touchdowns or interceptions while being stacked seven times.
Daniels has thrown quite a bit to running back Austin Ekeler who leads the team with seven catches on the season for 99 yards though Daniels main target has been wide out Terry McLaurin who has been targeted 12 times with eight receptions for 39 yards and no TD’s.
Some other trends:
The total has gone over in 7 of their last 10 games
The total has gone under in 12 of their last 17 games against AFC opponents
They are 2 - 7 against the spread in their last 9 games
They are 1 - 9 straight up in their last 10 games
They are 0 - 5 straight up in their last 5 games on the road
Bengals Preview
Cincinnati is 0 - 2 on the season and are currently last in the AFC North division. The Bengals gave the Kansas City Chiefs all they had last week and came up short in a 26 - 25 loss and only lost to the Patriots in week one by six points.
After only two games, the Bengals are 18th in the ESPN Power Index. They are 32nd in total yards (544) good for 27th in average yards per game (272), 27th in passing yards (400), 32nd in rushing yards (144) and 30th in points scored (35).
Defensively, Washington is first in yards allowed (576) and 9th in average yards per game (288), first in passing defense (257) and 14th in rushing defense (319) while being 6th in points allowed (42).
Quarterback Joe Burrow comes into Week 3 with a 95.8 QBR on 44 for 65 passing for 422 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Burrow has rushed for 24 yards on 10 carriers and has been stacked six times.
Burrow’s favorite target is Tight End Mike Gesicki who has been targeted 13 times and leads the team with 10 catches for 109 yards and Wide Receiver Ja’Marr Chase who has 10 receptions for 97 yards and no touchdowns.
Some other trends:
The total has gone over in 6 of their last 8 games
The total has gone under in their last 5 games against NFC East opponents
The total has gone under in 10 of their last 12 games in September
They are 1 - 4 straight up in their last 5 games
They are 13 - 4 straight up in their last 17 home games
RANDOM: They are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 home games played on a Monday
Final Thoughts
I’m not a huge fan of games where both teams should be better than they are and yet are somehow as bad as they look. And seeing how neither team has been an offensive powerhouse coupled with the way the Bengals defense has been playing, I’m tilting towards playing the under tonight. This game opened at 49 and has moved down to as low as 46. Primetime under’s are 6 - 3 (67%) in 2024 and are 166 - 110 (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2019.
My Pick: Total Under 46.5 +100
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