After some time away, I’m back with a new POTD!
The Astros conclude a 3-game series tonight in San Diego.
Date: Wednesday 09/18
Time: 6:40 PM ET
Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Game Time Weather:
Astros Preview
Houston continues a 6-game west coast swing as they play the rubber match of a 3-game set against the Padres.
The Astros are 82 - 69 and lead the AL West standings by five games over the Seattle Mariners. Houston has gone 6 - 4 in their last 5 games and are 32 - 23 since the All-Star Game. The Astros are 40 - 37 in away games and have a fantastic 61 - 48 record against right hand pitching.
Houston is 3rd in the league in batting average (.262), 2nd in hits (1358), 9th in slugging percentage (.417) and 8th in OPS (.738). The Astros are 6th in pitching ERA (3.71), 2nd in OBA (.229) and strikeouts (1375) and 26th in walks allowed (522).
The Astros start left hander Framber Valdez who is 14 - 6 in 26 starts with a 2.91 ERA, 159 K’s and a 1.09 WHIP, good for 12th in the league. Valdez is 6 - 4 on the road with a 3.56 road ERA with 65 K’s and took a no-decision in his last outing last week against the A’s going 6.1 innings with 5 hits and one earned run with 6 K’s and 1 walk.
Some other trends:
They are 5 - 1 straight up in their last 6 games
They are 2 - 6 straight up in their last 8 games on the road vs San Diego
They are 5 - 10 straight up in their last 15 games against NL opponents
The total has gone under in 4 of their last 5 games
The total has gone under in 5 of their last 6 road games
Padres Preview
San Diego is in the middle of a 6-game home stand and will continue tonight in the 3rd game against the Astros.
The Padres are 86 - 66 and sit in 2nd place in the NL West standings 3.5 games back of the LA Dodgers. The Padres are 6 - 4 in their last 10 games and have split the last two games with the Astros. They are 36 - 17 since the All-Star break and have a 41 - 36 home record including a 24 - 19 record against left hand pitching.
San Diego is first in batting average (.256) and hits (1377), 8th in slugging percentage (.419) and 7th in OPS (.745). The Padres pitching is 12th in ERA (3.91), 15th in OBA (.240), 3rd in strikeouts (1370) and are 9th in walks allowed (435).
The Padres will trot out right hander Dylan Cease who is 13 - 11 in 31 starts with a 3.58 ERA and 215 K’s, which is 3rd in the league, and a 1.09 WHIP, good for 13th in the league. Cease is 5 - 7 at home with a 3.36 home ERA and 98 K’s. He took the win in his last outing going 6 innings on 4 hits and no runs while giving up 2 walks and striking out 10 Giants batters.
Some other trends:
They are 4 - 1 straight up in their last 5 games
They are 6 - 2 straight up in their last 8 games at home against Houston
They are 12 - 6 straight up in their last 18 games against AL opponents
The total has gone under in 4 of their last 5 games
The total has gone under in 6 of their last 9 home games
Final Thoughts
These are the games I like. They are difficult. You agonize over the pick and you see that even the books are struggling to come up with a plan. DK opened with Houston -110 and it’s moved slightly up to -112, but Pinnacle, arguably one of the sharpest books, had the Padres at -105 and have a slight steam move up to -108.
Both teams are playing great with the Padres still hanging on for a wild card spot in the playoffs just 2.5 games ahead of the lagging D’backs and with Houston all but locking up the AL West, we’re in for a good one tonight. But I have to follow my own metrics and instincts here.
My Pick: San Diego Padres ML -105
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